Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 795

   Mesoscale Discussion 0795
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0536 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of central and eastern Wisconsin

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 253...

   Valid 152236Z - 160000Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 253 continues.

   SUMMARY...Arcing band of supercells will continue to pose a risk of
   tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.

   DISCUSSION...An arcing band of semi-discrete supercells continues
   tracking northeastward across parts of central/eastern WI this
   evening -- generally focused along an occluded surface front. Around
   40-50 kt of effective shear oriented off the boundary should
   maintain the semi-discrete mode, especially in the near-term. Ahead
   of these storms, backed surface winds in the sheltered boundary
   layer beneath a warm-advection plume is yielding upwards of 400
   m2/s2 0-1km SRH (per MKX VWP). Given middle 60s dewpoints beneath
   steep midlevel lapse rates (and surface-based inflow layers), this
   enhanced low-level streamwise vorticity will continue to support a
   supercell tornado threat for the next couple hours -- before storms
   move too far east into more stable low-level air. The most
   concerning area appears to be at the southern end of the line in
   south-central WI, where SRH and surface-based inflow is maximized
   amid a more discrete supercell mode. Large hail and damaging winds
   will also remain possible with this activity.

   ..Weinman.. 05/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

   LAT...LON   43018873 43968955 44619031 45019061 45289039 45418983
               45198920 45028886 44508832 43878794 43398782 43058794
               42838829 43018873 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN