Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 792

   Mesoscale Discussion 0792
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0300 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

   Areas affected...Portions of northwest Wisconsin

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 251...

   Valid 152000Z - 152130Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 251 continues.

   SUMMARY...Tornado potential, including a strong tornado, will shift
   into portions of northwest Wisconsin over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells continues north and east.
   These storms will move across the River and into northwest Wisconsin
   shortly. Temperatures have risen into low 80s F with dewpoints
   remaining near 64 F. Given the storm mode, low-level thermodynamics,
   and backed surface winds, this area will be the primary focus for
   tornado potential over the next 1-2 hours. Storms have remained in
   close proximity to one another, but still sufficiently discrete that
   overall inflow quality remains favorable for low-level mesocyclone
   intensification. With objective mesoanalysis showing STP of 2-3, a
   strong tornado remains possible.

   ..Wendt.. 05/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44379245 44999324 45259323 45449277 45489242 45349185
               45219156 44959147 44539175 44279217 44379245 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN