Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 789

   Mesoscale Discussion 0789
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0142 PM CDT Thu May 15 2025

   Areas affected...Twin Cities Vicinity

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 251...

   Valid 151842Z - 151945Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 251 continues.

   SUMMARY...A mesoscale corridor of greater tornado potential is
   evident near the Twin Cities. Tornado potential, perhaps strong,
   will be focused here over the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A broken line of supercells south of the Twin Cities is
   expected to continue northward. Low-level thermodynamics ahead of
   these storms continues to improve this afternoon with temperatures
   nearing 80 F. Given the backed surface winds, these supercells will
   have locally greater potential to produce a tornado. The VAD from
   KMPX has shown increasing 0-1 km SRH and objective mesoanalysis
   shows STP greater than 2. Mid-level lapse rates are also very steep
   per the 18Z MPX sounding. A strong tornado would be possible in this
   environment.

   ..Wendt.. 05/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44329346 44639374 44819391 44959395 45099380 45289337
               45279297 44979271 44609251 44259278 44099291 44049320
               44329346 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN