Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 782

   Mesoscale Discussion 0782
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1011 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

   Areas affected...Northern Nebraska...Southeast South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249...

   Valid 150311Z - 150445Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 249
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will continue propagating northeast.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection is strengthening across
   northeast NE into southeast SD as LLJ focuses into this region of
   the Plains. Latest radar data supports this with gradual convective
   expansion through storm mergers and clustering. A broader MCS may be
   evolving, though a few supercells persist along the southern fringe
   of the expanding complex. Hail likely continues with the stronger
   supercells, and damaging winds may also be noted, especially as the
   upstream high-Plains convection surges into the southern flanks of
   this activity. With time, severe threat should increase into
   southeastern SD as the LLJ shifts into this region.

   ..Darrow.. 05/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   41679972 43629871 43309734 41469809 41679972 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN