Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 781

   Mesoscale Discussion 0781
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0742 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

   Areas affected...parts of northeast CO...southwest NE and northwest
   KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248...

   Valid 150042Z - 150215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 248
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A cluster of severe storms should continue eastward across
   WW248. Damaging winds and hail are likely. Local extensions of WW248
   will be needed.

   DISCUSSION...As of 0035 UTC, regional radar analysis showed a
   cluster of severe storms stretching from southern and western NE,
   into northeastern CO and approaching northwest KS. Several reports
   of damaging winds and hail have been received with these storms over
   the past 2 hours. The severe risk is expected to continue this
   evening as storms gradually move eastward into increasingly more
   buoyant air near the north/south oriented stationary front. 45 kt of
   deep-layer shear and 500-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE will support storm
   organization with high-based supercell structures (ML LCL > 2500 M
   AGL) and linear clusters. CAM guidance and radar trends suggest
   additional upscale growth is likely with time as the low-level jet
   increases. Later tonight this may focus the severe risk
   northeastward into southern and central NE. Until then, a severe
   threat will persist across parts of Northwest KS and southern NE. A
   local extension of WW248 will likely be needed to cover the
   increasing risk for hail and damaging gusts this evening.

   ..Lyons.. 05/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41290316 40950059 40070016 39460016 39260176 39290312
               41290316 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN