Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 780

   Mesoscale Discussion 0780
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0709 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

   Areas affected...Nebraska...South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247...

   Valid 150009Z - 150145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 247
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue much of the
   evening. Hail and wind remain likely with the the most robust
   convection.

   DISCUSSION...Strongly diffluent high-level flow is noted across the
   central Plains early this evening. A considerable amount of
   convection has developed along a zone of favorable low-level
   convergence across western/central NE into western SD. Supercells
   are embedded in this activity with storm motions favoring northward
   movement along the zone of low-level convergence. However,
   substantial convection has recently evolved across the high Plains
   from southeast WY into northeast CO. This expanding precip shield is
   forward propagating toward the southwestern portions of ww247. Over
   the next several hours there should be some propensity for the
   southern-most flank of the ongoing convection to begin to advance
   east. Until then, large hail will be the primary risk with
   supercells, while damaging wind threat may increase as the upstream
   convection surges into the southern part of the watch.

   ..Darrow.. 05/15/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   40360202 44880120 44889936 40380032 40360202 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN