Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 777

   Mesoscale Discussion 0777
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of western/central South
   Dakota...south-central North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 141900Z - 142100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail will be possible with elevated
   storms west of the surface boundary. Large hail/severe gusts are
   possible to the east where storms will be surface based. Watch
   potential is currently low, but trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Convection in western South Dakota continues to
   reinforce a surface boundary just west of the Missouri River.
   Surface heating has slowly eroded MLCIN within the warm sector. A
   few cumulus towers have begun to deepen along the boundary over the
   past hour. In time, and with a modest increase in mid-level ascent
   from the approaching trough, widely scattered to scattered storms
   appear possible. Shear will be strongest on the cool side of the
   front, but should still remain sufficient for organized storms.
   Still, the greatest potential for large hail and severe winds will
   be along and east of the boundary where buoyancy will be greater and
   storms will be surface based. Given the vorticity along the
   boundary, low potential for a brief tornado exists. To the west of
   the front, elevated buoyancy and modestly strong shear will promote
   storms capable of marginally severe hail.

   The need for a watch remains unclear. Given the deep-layer
   meridional flow, storm interactions/interference are likely. This
   has potential to limit the overall severe threat. Convection trends
   will continue to be monitored, however.

   ..Wendt/Gleason.. 05/14/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43060168 43840231 45390218 46290085 46490031 46429968
               45579932 44239974 43450019 43100055 43060168 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN