Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 776

   Mesoscale Discussion 0776
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1038 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

   Areas affected...central/eastern NC into far southeast VA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141538Z - 141815Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and isolated, marginally severe
   hail will be possible this afternoon with scattered, largely
   disorganized thunderstorms.

   DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorm development is underway along the
   coastal sea breeze in southern NC and ahead of a low-amplitude
   shortwave impulse in north-central NC. Additional storms are
   expected to form trailing south and east-northeast of the impulse as
   it progresses east this afternoon. Robust insolation across a decent
   swath of eastern NC has yielded surface temperatures running at
   least a few degrees above guidance, and will likely support moderate
   buoyancy in the next couple hours with MLCAPE reaching 1500-2000
   J/kg. Despite the presence of the mid-level trough, weak lapse rates
   above the boundary layer will temper updraft intensity. The primary
   limiting factor will be weak deep-layer shear given close proximity
   to the mid-level trough and the belt of moderate westerlies
   relegated to its southwest quadrant. This suggests convection will
   predominately have pulse cell character, although loosely organized
   multicells may develop later in the afternoon into eastern NC and
   far southeast VA.

   ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/14/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...

   LAT...LON   36127970 36447927 36757816 36987745 37037706 37047660
               36957634 36767624 36227661 35467725 34867756 33947779
               33867837 33927863 34337888 34677989 34988001 35687946
               36127970 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN