Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 772

   Mesoscale Discussion 0772
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0140 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 130640Z - 130915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Some localized brief-tornado and wind-damage threat may
   persist overnight.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple clusters of convection are ongoing from
   northeast SC into eastern NC early this morning. This activity will
   continue to be aided by a shortwave trough that is moving
   northeastward around the periphery of a persistent mid/upper-level
   cyclone centered over parts of the Mid-South/TN Valley. Rather
   strong low-level flow (with 35-45 kt at 1-2 km AGL per recent
   objective analyses and VWPs from KLTX, KRAX, and KMHX) will continue
   to enlarge hodographs, with effective SRH of 150-200 m2/s2. 

   Weak lapse rates/buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear will continue
   to be a general limiting factor for severe potential. However, given
   the relatively favorable low-level wind profiles, MLCAPE approaching
   500 J/kg within a moist environment could support occasional
   transient supercell structures, with some localized brief-tornado
   and wind-damage potential through the overnight.

   ..Dean/Bunting.. 05/13/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34747913 35397896 35627843 36097715 35907608 35237551
               34907589 34397669 34067719 33887752 33547815 33747851
               33997880 34747913 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH