Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 769

   Mesoscale Discussion 0769
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0534 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

   Areas affected...parts of northern UT...western WY and southwest MT

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245...

   Valid 112234Z - 120030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 245
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered high-based showers and storms will remain
   capable of damaging gusts to 60-80 mph this evening.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2225 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
   showed scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms have developed
   across WW245 this afternoon. Numerous reports of severe/damaging
   gusts have been noted over UT and ID so far indicating an
   environment supportive of severe gusts. This is expected to continue
   as storms gradually expand northeastward into western WY and
   southern MT this evening with 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 40+ kt of
   effective shear.

   While some redevelopment is possible farther south through this
   evening, decreasing MU and DCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis indicate some
   air mass overturning has occurred across southern portions of the
   watch in northern UT. This may limit the best storm coverage to area
   farther north, but given the environment remains broadly favorable,
   severe gusts remain possible over much of the watch area this
   evening.

   ..Lyons.. 05/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...

   LAT...LON   40861390 44251326 45111060 44900833 43710908 43370924
               40861102 40431136 40631276 40861390 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN