Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 768

   Mesoscale Discussion 0768
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0457 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

   Areas affected...central and eastern Montana into western North
   Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 112157Z - 120000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts possible across central and eastern
   Montana into western North Dakota this evening.

   DISCUSSION...A few storm clusters have developed this evening, one
   in north-central Montana and another in southeast Montana. A very
   deeply mixed environment ahead of this activity will support severe
   wind gusts. These winds will be most likely in a belt from
   north-central Montana to northeast Montana and another across
   southeast Montana into western North Dakota. 

   MLCAPE is only around 500 to 750 J/kg, but is sufficient to support
   strengthening convection a some additional storms. 

   The most likely corridor for a watch is the southeast Montana
   corridor where the region of greater instability is larger and where
   temperatures are warmer (away from the cloudcover). In addition, the
   HRRR has a consistent signal showing 70-80 mph surface wind gusts
   from the convection that is currently in southeast Montana as it
   moves northeast and eventually into western North Dakota. Additional
   convection developing across far southeast Montana may also pose a
   severe wind threat as it congeals and moves north-east/north this
   evening.

   ..Bentley/Hart.. 05/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...RIW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   49110182 47530198 46050267 45860393 45150514 44870784
               45550932 46201120 46851177 47691158 49101033 49060400
               49110182 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH