Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 767

   Mesoscale Discussion 0767
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

   Areas affected...central Florida northward toward southeast Georgia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111921Z - 112145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are forecast to increase in coverage throughout the
   afternoon from the central Florida Peninsula into northeast Florida
   and southeast Georgia.

   DISCUSSION...Storms are currently increasing east of Tampa to west
   of Okeechobee where strong heating has led to strong instability.
   The southerly flow regime should support a north/northeast movement
   to this development, affecting the remainder of central into
   northeastern Florida. Breaks in the clouds in those downstream areas
   are developing, and this should further increase instability.
   Although temperatures aloft are not as cool as previous days, MUCAPE
   over 2000 J/kg and deep-layer shear of 35-40 kt will support
   cellular storm mode with sporadic hail > 1.00" expected. Locally
   strong to damaging gusts cannot be ruled out as well, especially
   with any merging outflows.

   ..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   27158103 27348165 27658206 28098211 30438218 30958218
               31328183 31328151 31148134 30518136 29698113 29078080
               28408044 27888038 27308059 27158103 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN