Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 765

   Mesoscale Discussion 0765
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0139 PM CDT Sun May 11 2025

   Areas affected...eastern Idaho into western Wyoming and southwest
   Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111839Z - 112115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms should gradually increase in coverage and intensity
   from eastern Idaho into southwest Montana, with both hail and gust
   potential.

   DISCUSSION...A line of convection continue to increase in intensity
   over the upper Snake River Plain, with both strong heating and
   low-level warm advection ahead of it. Continued steepening of
   deep-layer lapse rates as the upper trough moves in the from the
   west and more heating should support further strengthening of this
   convection. Strong deep-layer shear will favor hail production with
   these storms over eastern ID. A brief/weak tornado cannot be ruled
   out with the stronger cells this afternoon, as low-level stretching
   is maximized.

   Farther north toward the Bitterroots, stronger cooling aloft is
   occurring, and areas of heating persist ahead of this activity as
   well. Long hodographs and cold midlevel temperatures will favor hail
   with these storms through the day.

   ..Jewell/Mosier.. 05/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...

   LAT...LON   42041299 42051382 42701393 43631329 44321328 45071381
               45711419 46261407 46871302 46801187 46511101 45681004
               45310990 44360984 42881087 42041299 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN