Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 763

   Mesoscale Discussion 0763
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0759 AM CDT Sun May 11 2025

   Areas affected...FL Panhandle/north FL into southeast AL...south
   GA...and southern SC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 111259Z - 111500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for strong to locally severe storms may
   increase through the morning.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing this morning from
   southeast GA into the FL Panhandle. Other than an MCS now moving off
   the Carolina coast, convection has largely been disorganized thus
   far. However, modest diurnal heating/destabilization could lead to
   increasingly vigorous storms with time this morning. Some increase
   in deep-layer flow/shear is also possible as a vorticity maximum
   rotates around a midlevel low centered over LA. 

   Locally damaging winds and perhaps some hail could accompany the
   stronger storms through the morning. Effective SRH of 100-150 m2/s2
   could also support at least transient supercell structures, with
   localized tornado potential, especially from the FL Panhandle into
   adjacent parts of southeast AL and south GA.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/11/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31788641 31978448 32518218 32698132 32868047 32128049
               31308136 30688165 30358196 30138240 29848374 29468505
               29728594 29908620 30148676 30608672 31078661 31788641 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN