Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 761

   Mesoscale Discussion 0761
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0326 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025

   Areas affected...The Snake River Plains of Idaho...and southwestern
   and central Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 102026Z - 102230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A few severe wind gusts, possibly exceeding 70 mph, will
   be possible within the next 1-2 hours across portions of the Snake
   River Plain and Rocky Mountains, into central MT.

   DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures have climbed into the low 80s
   across MT this afternoon under the northern fringe of an upper-level
   ridge. The latest visible satellite and radar imagery shows a small
   cluster of moist convection becoming more widespread over the Rocky
   Mountains near the MT/ID border via orographic ascent within a low
   to mid-level theta-e ridge axis. Additional development was also
   noted near the Snake River Plain. Very steep low-level lapse rates
   and a well mixed boundary layer are in place here, yielding DCAPE
   values around 1000-1500 J/kg. Evaporative cooling under high cloud
   bases in this environment will support isolated severe wind gusts
   through late this afternoon as thunderstorms become more numerous
   across the region. However, it's currently unclear how widespread
   the severe potential will be. A weather watch remains possible, but
   does not appear likely at this time given the isolated threat. The
   potential for severe wind gusts will shift northeastward later this
   evening into more of central MT, with storm interactions/mergers
   possible.

   ..Barnes/Mosier.. 05/10/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

   LAT...LON   42881450 43421440 44931425 45051423 45531417 46021409
               46391395 46631361 46781333 46871310 46921292 47101251
               47561102 47441019 47160970 46750944 46480951 46100984
               45741046 45431095 44771125 44261131 43441155 42711203
               42471251 42341298 42401371 42581432 42881450 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH