Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 759

   Mesoscale Discussion 0759
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0110 PM CDT Sat May 10 2025

   Areas affected...interior Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 101810Z - 102045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will likely spread north from central into northern
   Florida. Sporadic hail and locally strong downbursts will be
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...Heating of a moist air mass has led to moderate
   instability, with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg. Storms that initiated close
   to the sea breeze have rapidly moves northward with primary cluster
   east of Tampa. Although shear is not very strong, favorable time of
   day along with moderately steep midlevel lapse rates should continue
   to support strong updrafts, and localized hail and severe gusts may
   occur. This activity may reach northern FL later this afternoon,
   where outflow has temporarily stabilized the air mass.

   In addition, a large area of storms is currently located about 50
   miles west of Tampa, and continues to push east with indications of
   large-scale outflow, which may affect the west coast with wind later
   today.

   ..Jewell.. 05/10/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   27438112 26828164 26768224 27298265 27928287 28568271
               28968263 29288252 29528227 29638191 29598153 29408134
               29198125 28618116 27728108 27438112 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN