Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 754

   Mesoscale Discussion 0754
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0129 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025

   Areas affected...central and eastern parts of the Florida Peninsula

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 091829Z - 092000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong, damaging wind gusts and some large hail may
   accompany the stronger storms initiating off of sea-breeze
   boundaries this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is
   possible.

   DISCUSSION...A cumulus field is deepening along the shoreline of the
   eastern FL Peninsula with a developing, westward progressing
   sea-breeze boundary, which should serve as the impetus for
   convective initiation over the next couple of hours. These storms
   are poised to develop atop a heated, well-mixed boundary layer,
   characterized by 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates amid 70 F surface
   dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. In addition
   to adequate buoyancy supporting strong thunderstorm updrafts,
   glancing stronger mid/upper-level flow to the north will support 30+
   kts of effective bulk shear and some potential for storm
   organization. Multicells are the expected mode of convection,
   accompanied by strong wind gusts and perhaps some hail. A Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch may be needed if widespread, intense convection
   becomes apparent.

   ..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/09/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

   LAT...LON   27098153 28348194 29218206 29878203 30608200 30808193
               30878170 30708145 29968132 29258100 28648064 27998044
               27318011 26898005 26658027 26678108 27098153 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN