Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 747

   Mesoscale Discussion 0747
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0525 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

   Areas affected...pars of the Rio Grande Valley in southern Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241...

   Valid 082225Z - 090000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 241
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms, including a few supercells
   persist across the Watch area. Hail and isolated damaging winds
   remain likely this evening.

   DISCUSSION...As of 2220 UTC, scattered strong to severe storms were
   ongoing across much of the Rio Grande Valley and south TX. Several
   supercells were noted across Zapata/Jim Hogg and Dimmit Counties.
   The environment ahead of these storms, and additional storms
   crossing the border, remains broadly favorable for severe weather
   with 40-50 kt of effective shear and 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Hail
   remains the primary severe risk with steep mid-level lapse rates and
   the supercell mode. However, some clustering has been noted along
   the diffuse front farther north. This should continue into the
   evening as noted by some CAMS. This may support a greater risk for
   damaging winds across the Rio Grande Valley and south TX into
   tonight. Given the ongoing storms, and additional development
   crossing the border through the next few hours, the severe risk will
   continue across much of WW241.

   ..Lyons.. 05/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

   LAT...LON   29620133 29800055 29679978 28769874 27379829 26479782
               25979744 25889775 26189907 26709934 28130036 29330112
               29620133 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN