Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 744

   Mesoscale Discussion 0744
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

   Areas affected...southern Kentucky...middle Tennessee...northeast
   Mississippi and northwest Alabama

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...239...

   Valid 081903Z - 082030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238, 239
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercell development/intensification underway. Large hail
   and damaging wind gusts remain the primary threat.

   DISCUSSION...Several supercells have developed across northern
   Tennessee into central Kentucky. These storms have a history of 1 to
   1.75 inch hail thus far. The environment downstream of these
   supercells continues to destabilize which will maintain the threat
   through the afternoon and evening.

   Farther south, additional storms have started to develop from
   southern Tennessee into northeast Mississippi. Temperatures are not
   as cold aloft, but temperatures are warmer (upper 70s to low 80s)
   which has sufficiently compensated to support 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE (per
   SPC mesoanalysis). Given the stronger deep-layer shear across this
   region (~40 knots) beneath the mid-level jet core, expect these
   storms to become supercellular with a large hail and damaging wind
   threat. These storms may have the greatest threat for isolated 2+
   inch hail given the more favorable wind profile. 

   Severe thunderstorm watch 238 was expanded into northeast
   Mississippi and severe thunderstorm watch 239 was recently issued
   across northern Alabama to address this threat farther south.

   ..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   33548933 34438901 35568901 36528864 37698737 37668499
               37078467 34788628 33708732 33228845 33228880 33548933 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN