Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 742

   Mesoscale Discussion 0742
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025

   Areas affected...northern Florida...southeastern Georgia...far
   southern South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 081729Z - 081930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Hail and damaging wind threat may increase through the
   afternoon as thunderstorms develop along the sea breeze.

   DISCUSSION...The air mass across southeastern Georgia and southern
   South Carolina has warmed and destabilized through the morning and
   early afternoon, with temperatures now in the 80s. Thunderstorms
   have developed across southern South Carolina along a southward
   moving remnant outflow boundary. 

   Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the sea breeze
   boundary through the afternoon. Deep layer shear will see some
   increase to around 30-40 kts through the afternoon, with increasing
   westerly flow aloft. A plume of steep lapse rates is in place across
   this region, owing to cooling temperature aloft. Largely straight
   hodographs and moderate to strong instability will support risk for
   large hail and damaging wind with thunderstorm development. This
   area will be monitored for possible watch issuance by mid to late
   afternoon.

   ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   31398266 31538266 32008247 32488220 32528154 32338107
               32008087 31388132 30418141 30068125 29848129 29858167
               30058214 30528262 31398266 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN