Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 738

   Mesoscale Discussion 0738
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0756 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025

   Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 081256Z - 081430Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms possible this morning.

   DISCUSSION...Convection has increased this morning near a weak
   confluence zone across parts of the FL Panhandle and adjacent
   waters, and weak rotation has been noted with cells near and
   northeast of Panama City. 

   In the absence of more robust large-scale ascent, the extent to
   which the ongoing convection can strengthen and be sustained is
   uncertain. However, relatively rich low-level moisture, MLCAPE of
   1000-1500 J/kg, and moderate deep-layer shear will support potential
   for organized storms through the morning. Isolated damaging wind and
   hail would likely be the primary threats, though a brief tornado
   cannot be ruled out.

   ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/08/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...

   LAT...LON   29938549 30438500 30458423 30298379 29948357 29658359
               29478394 29418431 29588524 29938549 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN