Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 733

   Mesoscale Discussion 0733
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0400 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025

   Areas affected...Deep South Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 237...

   Valid 070900Z - 071030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 237
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Some increase in severe-wind potential is possible before
   storms move offshore, in addition to a continued large hail threat.

   DISCUSSION...A small but occasionally intense thunderstorm complex
   has evolved across Deep South TX early this morning. Earlier 00Z
   soundings from CRP and BRO depicted very rich low-level moisture
   (with 1 km mean mixing ratios greater than 18 g/kg) beneath steep
   midlevel lapse rates, resulting in strong instability. Strong
   deep-layer shear and elongated hodographs were also observed with
   these soundings, which aided in earlier intense supercell
   development that resulted in giant hail in San Ygnacio, TX. 

   Some recent upscale growth has been noted, with smaller cells
   forming within a low-level warm advection regime to the east of the
   initial supercell cluster. It remains uncertain if substantial cold
   pool development can occur prior to storms moving offshore, but some
   increase in the severe-wind threat is possible, in addition to a
   continued hail threat. 

   If a more organized MCS does develop, there will likely be some
   tendency for it to propagate east-northeast near an
   outflow-influenced surface front, within the buoyancy gradient and
   along the northern periphery of warmer 700 mb temperatures and
   stronger capping.

   ..Dean.. 05/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   27819915 28689647 28809605 28199578 27429653 26999697
               26379734 26359840 26449883 26559915 26869899 27239881
               27499906 27819915 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN