Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 731

   Mesoscale Discussion 0731
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1022 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

   Areas affected...parts of sern MS...swrn AL...wrn FL PNHDL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 070322Z - 070515Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...There still appears potential for convection to become
   better organized and intensify through Midnight-2 AM CDT,
   accompanied by an increase in potential for strong to severe surface
   gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Vigorous thunderstorm development is generally being
   maintained within a broader area of convection, which continues to
   spread eastward with large-forcing for ascent across the lower
   Mississippi Valley.  One relatively broad cyclonic mesoscale
   circulation remains evident near a clustering of persistent strong
   convection, now near a remnant weak baroclinic zone east of Natchez
   MS.  There still appears potential for this circulation to
   strengthen along the thermal gradient, particularly as long as
   south/southeasterly updraft inflow continues to emanate from a moist
   low-level environment characterized by sizable CAPE.  This appears
   to extend as far east as the Florida Panhandle.  03Z surface
   observations suggest that convection may be contributing to a
   notable surface pressure perturbation, with 3-4+ mb 2-hourly surface
   pressure rises sampled at Greenwood, Jackson, Brookhaven County
   Airport MS and Baton Rouge LA, and much weaker rises to weak falls
   downstream.

   ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   32468929 32448834 31928774 31298672 30298738 30058753
               30368919 30528989 31058980 31508959 32468929 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN