Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 730

   Mesoscale Discussion 0730
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1000 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

   Areas affected...the southern Texas Coastal Plain into Deep South
   Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236...

   Valid 070300Z - 070500Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 236
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for severe hail will continue through at least
   04 UTC along parts of the southern Texas Coastal Plain and into Deep
   South Texas.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated supercells along the TX Coastal Plain and into
   parts of Deep South TX have shown periods of vigorous
   intensification followed by rapid weakening. This is likely due to
   storm propagation along and just behind the convectively-reinforced
   cold front/outflow boundary that continues to push towards the
   coast. Recent radar analysis from KCRP shows that this boundary
   likely extends to at least 2 km above radar level, which should be
   near the mixed-layer LFC based on a modified 00 UTC CRP sounding and
   recent forecast soundings. Consequently, re-intensification of
   ongoing convection and/or new convective development appears
   possible along the boundary as near-surface parcels are lifted close
   to their LFC. Even with modulated nocturnal cooling, MLCAPE remains
   between 3500-4000 J/kg, which when combined with the strongly
   sheared environment (~50 knots of 0-6 km shear sampled by KCRP's
   VWP) will continue to promote a large to very large hail threat with
   the more robust supercells. Hail reports up to 2.0 inches have been
   noted over the past hour, but the convective environment is
   supportive of supercells capable of producing hail between 2.0 to
   3.0 inches in diameter. This threat should persist for at least the
   next hour or so before the front/outflow reaches the coast.

   ..Moore.. 05/07/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO...

   LAT...LON   27349924 27429914 28369776 29039672 29129641 29089615
               28939601 28779599 28659604 28369644 28179684 27829716
               27609736 27439750 27289774 27129797 27059822 27039861
               27069891 27139918 27219923 27349924 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN