Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 725

   Mesoscale Discussion 0725
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0457 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

   Areas affected...Eastern New York and portions of northeast
   Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233...

   Valid 062157Z - 070000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A band of thunderstorms beginning to move out of WW 233
   has shown signs of weakening over the past hour. However, residual
   buoyancy and strong shear downstream may maintain some severe risk
   into parts of eastern New York. Downstream watch issuance is not
   currently expected, but trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...Lightning counts have trended down within an arcing
   band of storms moving out of northeast PA and into NY. Concurrently,
   GOES IR imagery shows a slight warming trend in cloud-top
   temperatures, also suggesting a gradual weakening trend. Currently,
   the best convective environment resides across eastern portions of
   WW 233 - specifically far eastern PA into northern NJ and southern
   NY - where a few robust cells continue to show periodic
   intensification. Although some buoyancy exists immediately
   downstream of the convective band (around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE), the
   overall weakening trend is largely expected to continue as the onset
   of the early evening transition within the next 1-2 hours begins to
   limit surface-based buoyancy and increase inhibition. However,
   robust ascent ahead of a mid-level shortwave/vorticity maximum and
   45-50 knots of deep-layer shear sampled by regional VWPs may
   continue to support storm maintenance and occasional intensification
   of cells and/or segments within the line. Given the aforementioned
   thermodynamic challenges, this is not anticipated to be a widespread
   threat, but localized areas of damaging gusts appear possible
   through 00 UTC.

   ..Moore.. 05/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   40897539 41387532 41837535 42237543 42497559 42637581
               42767599 42967609 43187612 43487601 43707577 43847545
               43867514 43877477 43817462 43647434 43317381 42977360
               42717346 42297339 41147356 40937367 40697390 40637412
               40607455 40677517 40897539 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN