Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 722

   Mesoscale Discussion 0722
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania into northwestern
   New Jersey and southern New York

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233...

   Valid 062037Z - 062200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Additional instances of damaging gusts and perhaps hail
   remain possible with the stronger storms. A tornado may still occur
   with storms ahead of a pre-frontal boundary.

   DISCUSSION...A primary arching band of strong thunderstorms persists
   ahead of a pseudo-dryline pre-frontal boundary across far eastern
   PA, with temperatures rising into the upper 70s F amid 10 degree F
   dewpoint decreases as the boundary passes. These pre-frontal storms
   have been the most organized so far, with multiple instances of
   low-level rotation detected and an apparent tornado reported in the
   past hour. The best chance for an additional tornado remains with
   these storms, along the PA/NJ/NY borders, before the ongoing storms
   move into a more stable airmass. Otherwise, strong wind gusts and
   perhaps hail may develop with the stronger storms to the west of the
   pre-frontal boundary.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   40267688 41177674 42567623 42787535 42797500 42027455
               41117454 40727455 40397480 40187520 40117594 40267688 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN