Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 718

   Mesoscale Discussion 0718
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0119 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025

   Areas affected...East Texas and much of central Louisiana.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 061819Z - 061945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A downstream tornado watch will likely be needed soon for
   portions of East Texas and much of central Louisiana.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms has developed across central Texas.
   Embedded supercells within this line have shown persistent
   circulation with at least one confirmed tornado thus far. East of
   this line, the boundary layer continues to destabilize as a warm
   front lifts north. This will support a continued threat through the
   afternoon and into the evening along and south of the warm front.
   Favorable low-level shear is present ahead of this line across East
   Texas where SPC mesoanalysis shows a peak STP of 3 to 4. Expect this
   environment to continue to expand north and east ahead of this line
   with a persistent threat for primarily severe wind gusts and
   tornadoes. 

   The higher end tornado threat hinges primarily on whether supercells
   can develop ahead of the ongoing linear activity. If this occurs, a
   greater strong tornado threat would exist this afternoon/evening.
   However, it is unclear whether this will occur. Storm development
   seems closely tied to the warm front/cold front and temperatures
   along the warm front across east Texas and west-central Louisiana
   are only in the low to mid 70s. Warmer temperatures have developed
   farther south across southeast Texas, but without a focused boundary
   for development, new development within this environment may be
   challenging. 

   Nonetheless, even if the more discrete supercell threat does not
   materialize, confidence is high for a line of storms to move across
   East Texas and central Louisiana within a moderately unstable and
   strongly sheared environment. This will necessitate a tornado watch
   shortly. In addition, based on the current warm front location and
   expected northward movement, a few of the southern counties within
   severe thunderstorm watch 232 may also need to be replaced by a
   tornado watch with the issuance of this downstream watch.

   ..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30339448 30749464 31829471 32099387 32389302 32229220
               31799210 31379207 30769209 30449227 30299380 30339448 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN