Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 717

   Mesoscale Discussion 0717
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1114 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

   Areas affected...southern Louisiana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 061614Z - 061745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...There is an increasing supercell threat across southern
   Louisiana with a threat for large hail and perhaps a tornado.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered cloud cover has supported rapid
   destabilization south of a northward moving warm front across
   southern Louisiana. A strengthening low-level jet across southern
   Louisiana (45-50 knots per LCH VWP) has provided sufficient forcing
   for convective development late this morning. These storms which
   have developed have quickly shown supercellular characteristics amid
   40 knots of effective shear (per LCH VWP). While a tornado threat
   cannot be ruled out, storm propagation across the warm front should
   mostly support a hail threat from this activity. 

   Due to the propagation across the front and displacement well east
   of the upper-level forcing, duration of the threat and necessity for
   a severe thunderstorm watch remains unclear.

   ..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...

   LAT...LON   30989361 31279253 31229172 30929058 30469020 29649072
               29409141 29539241 29739328 29909353 30989361 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN