Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 715

   Mesoscale Discussion 0715
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1050 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

   Areas affected...Central to East-Central Texas

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 231...

   Valid 061550Z - 061715Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 231 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado threat will increase late this morning into
   the early afternoon across parts of central and east-central Texas.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture advection has resulted in increasing
   instability along the warm front in central/east-central Texas with
   low 70s dewpoints now present across this region. Cloud cover has
   limited heating thus far, but some breaks in the clouds have become
   apparent and should allow for heating into the early afternoon. A
   mature supercell already exists along this frontal zone in Bell
   County, Texas. Expect this cell to continue east along the front
   with an increasing tornado threat through the afternoon. Additional
   development has already started to the southwest with some hints of
   additional development farther east along the front. By later this
   afternoon, expect several supercells along and south of the warm
   front with a primary threat for large hail and tornadoes (some of
   which could be strong).

   The primary limiting factor based on 12Z forecast soundings was
   moist/neutral lapse rates in the low levels. However, at least some
   heating is already apparent south of the front which could result in
   low 80s temperatures and more favorable low-level lapse rates.
   Therefore, concern is increasing for an evolving tornado threat
   across east-central Texas.

   ..Bentley.. 05/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...

   LAT...LON   30969806 31369711 31399570 31279530 30919512 30159504
               29589507 29479653 29549797 29559828 29659858 29849859
               30969806 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN