Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 714

   Mesoscale Discussion 0714
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0917 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

   Areas affected...north-central Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230...

   Valid 061417Z - 061515Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A downstream/replacement severe thunderstorm watch will be
   needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues to move east across north
   Texas. This line appears mostly elevated with occasional wind
   signatures, but no substantial measured wind gusts. Ahead of this
   line, elevated storms have started to develop into supercells.
   Expect this elevated activity to increase through the morning as a
   40-45 knot low-level jet intensifies across northeast Texas with
   ~1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Some supercell structures will be possible given
   the strong wind profile. Large hail will be the primary threat from
   this activity. 

   A replacement severe thunderstorm watch will be needed by 15Z across
   north-central Texas with additional areas east of watch 230 also
   needed.

   ..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

   LAT...LON   31429837 32309818 32869814 33309789 33479698 33289584
               32729544 31859548 31539597 31499709 31499781 31429837 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN