Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 711

   Mesoscale Discussion 0711
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0506 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025

   Areas affected...TX Concho Valley into Northwest TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230...

   Valid 061006Z - 061130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is expected to continue through dawn,
   with potential for hail and severe gusts. A tornado threat also
   remains near the warm front.

   DISCUSSION...Several strong to potentially severe storms are moving
   east-northeast across the Concho Valley region of TX into the Big
   Country. The bulk of the ongoing convection is elevated to the north
   of a warm front that is gradually moving northward across the
   Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Moderate buoyancy and strong
   deep-layer shear will continue to support a threat for large to very
   large hail and localized severe gusts with any elevated supercells.
   The line segment that earlier organized along a cold front and is
   now moving through San Angelo could pose a somewhat greater threat
   for strong to severe gusts, in addition to hail with embedded
   supercells. 

   Farther southwest, increasing convection has been noted along the
   trailing cold front/outflow into Crockett County, TX. Convection in
   this area is in closer proximity to the warm front and rich surface
   moisture. Low-level hodographs remain sufficiently large to support
   a tornado threat with any discrete or embedded supercell that moves
   within the vicinity of the warm front early this morning.

   ..Dean.. 05/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30740160 31650092 32619985 32999917 32989797 31629805
               30979850 30329929 30310159 30740160 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN