Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 709

   Mesoscale Discussion 0709
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1130 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025

   Areas affected...parts of swrn TX and adjacent sern NM

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 229...

   Valid 060430Z - 060630Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 229 continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorm initiation now appears underway
   across the Pecos Valley into Del Rio vicinity.  A few cells may
   undergo considerable further intensification accompanied by
   increasing potential to produce very large hail and perhaps a strong
   tornado or two.

   DISCUSSION...Increasing and intensifying discrete thunderstorm
   development now appears underway across the Pecos Valley. This is
   focused within modestly deep surface troughing east-southeast of a
   surface low, now centered west-northwest of Fort Stockton, where
   boundary-layer moisture characterized by lower 60s surface dew
   points has spread as far northwest as the I-20 corridor to the
   southwest of Midland/Odessa.  This is contributing to mixed-layer
   CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg.

   With further weakening of inhibition, strengthening convection
   rooted within this environment will pose the greatest potential to
   undergo rapid intensification, supported by both strong deep-layer
   shear and now enlarged, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs along
   a southeasterly low-level jet (40-50 kt around 850 mb).  This
   environment appears potentially conducive to a couple of intense
   supercells posing a risk for very large hail and perhaps a strong
   tornado or two.

   ..Kerr.. 05/06/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31890394 32020289 30800113 30090066 29860222 30280270
               30760382 31330385 31890394 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN