Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 684

   Mesoscale Discussion 0684
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0338 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

   Areas affected...southeast NM and far west TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222...

   Valid 042038Z - 042215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercells are expected to intensify across southeast New
   Mexico into parts of far west Texas through early evening. Hail is
   the primary hazard, likely reaching golf to tennis ball size.
   Isolated severe gusts to 70 mph and a brief tornado are possible.

   DISCUSSION...Overall forecast remains as advertised. Storm
   intensification has been gradual, but largely focused near the
   Sacramento Mountains in Otero and Lincoln counties, and separately
   over Eddy and Chaves, spreading into Lea within NM. These cells and
   others that should develop off the higher terrain of the northern
   Trans-Pecos in TX will likely intensify during the next few hours. A
   ribbon of surface dew points near 50 F have held along the Pecos
   Valley, supporting a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy. With
   onset of strengthening low-level flow around 22Z, supercell
   coverage/intensity should peak into early evening. Thereafter, drier
   low-level air over the TX South Plains and eastern Permian Basin
   should result in increased ingest of MLCIN deeper into the evening.

   ..Grams.. 05/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32750583 33150567 33560516 33760462 33830415 33710359
               33520318 33150295 32680270 32110266 31580281 31310350
               31290415 31800527 32370578 32750583 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN