Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 683

   Mesoscale Discussion 0683
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0134 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

   Areas affected...portions of northeast Kentucky into central and
   southern Ohio...extreme southwestern Pennsylvania...much of West
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 041834Z - 042100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may develop into mid afternoon
   with the stronger storms. Several bouts of small hail may occur,
   with a few instances of marginally severe hail and gusty winds also
   possible. A tornado cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is unlikely
   given the isolated nature of the severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are increasing in coverage and intensity
   beneath a nearly vertically stacked cyclone, where colder
   temperatures aloft are overspreading a warming/destabilizing
   boundary layer. Despite mediocre vertical wind shear, 500 mb
   temperatures dropping below -20C indicate the potential for at least
   small hail development in the stronger storm cores, with a couple
   instances of marginally severe hail possible with the more
   persistent updrafts. A few strong wind gusts may also occur.
   Furthermore, a tornado cannot be ruled out given the deep-layer
   vertical vorticity rich environment over the eastern OH Valley.
   Nonetheless, given limited boundary-layer-based buoyancy, the
   overall coverage of severe is expected to be too low to warrant a WW
   issuance at this time.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   39897977 38627985 37738047 37418123 37288202 37348312
               37678394 38478432 39268415 40248330 40538239 40598226
               41118103 40838035 39897977 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN