Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 678

   Mesoscale Discussion 0678
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

   Areas affected...southeast NM and far west TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 041722Z - 041915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A few to several supercells, a couple of which may be
   long-lived, should develop across southeast New Mexico into parts of
   far west Texas this afternoon. Golf to tennis ball size hail,
   localized severe gusts to 70 mph, and a brief tornado will be
   possible. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed.

   DISCUSSION...Despite modest low-level moisture, the northwest extent
   of mid to upper 40s surface dew points should be maintained through
   peak boundary-layer mixing. A difluent mid/upper flow regime
   downstream of a strong zonal jetlet, centered on the border area
   with northwest Mexico, and orographic forcing will aid in sufficient
   ascent for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Low-level
   south-southeasterlies veering to the west-southwesterlies aloft will
   be favorable for supercells, a couple of which may be long-lived.
   Initial supercells should remain tied to the higher terrain near the
   Sacramento Mountains into the far northern portion of the
   Trans-Pecos with effective bulk shear from 30-40 kts. This will
   increase above 40 kts towards late afternoon. Robust speed shear in
   the upper portion of the buoyancy profile coupled with MLCAPE of
   500-1500 J/kg should yield a threat for significant severe hail. The
   overall spatial extent of sustained supercells should be fairly
   confined, owing to more pronounced MLCIN southward in the
   Trans-Pecos and diminishing buoyancy northward in NM.

   ..Grams/Gleason.. 05/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   33000620 33620623 34170608 34440475 33830393 33060301
               32540281 31930292 31280315 30880398 31370457 31920522
               33000620 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN