Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 676

   Mesoscale Discussion 0676
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0914 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

   Areas affected...Northeast Georgina into western South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221...

   Valid 040214Z - 040415Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 221
   continues.

   SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may persist downstream of WW 221
   into northeast Georgia and western South Carolina. However,
   continued nocturnal stabilization should limit the coverage of this
   threat.

   DISCUSSION...A well-balanced squall line continues to push east
   across northern GA and far western SC. Additionally, a timeseries of
   the KCAE VWP depicts low-level warm advection increasing as
   south/southwesterly 925-850 mb flow overspreads a residual cold pool
   in place across SC. This is providing sufficient lift for discrete
   cells ahead of the line from far eastern GA into SC. MRMS echo
   tops/vertically integrated liquid and GOES IR imagery all suggest
   that this convection is not overly robust; however, a residual
   pocket of around 500 J/kg MLCAPE resides immediately downstream of
   the squall line and within the zone of warm-advection ascent. Given
   the strong low-level shear in place across the region (roughly 30
   knots of 0-1 km BWD), local surges within the line may continue to
   support swaths of damaging winds and/or brief circulations. Based on
   recent HRRR solutions, this potential may linger through 06 UTC into
   central SC. Transient supercells within the warm advection regime
   may also pose a large hail/damaging wind threat. Continued diurnal
   cooling/stabilization should limit the coverage of these threats and
   make watch issuance downstream of WW 221 unlikely at this time.

   ..Moore.. 05/04/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   33228408 33728348 34248302 34698277 35018268 35128253
               35218207 35198154 35138098 35058083 34538064 34188074
               33718112 33308166 33108224 32928328 32838374 32828397
               32868415 33008423 33138420 33228408 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN