Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 672

   Mesoscale Discussion 0672
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0459 PM CDT Sat May 03 2025

   Areas affected...Southern Alabama...the western Florida
   Panhandle...and far eastern Mississippi

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 032159Z - 040000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along and ahead of an approaching
   cold front may intensify to severe limits and pose a damaging
   wind/large hail threat through the early evening hours. Watch
   issuance is possible if severe thunderstorm coverage sufficiently
   increases.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have begun developing across
   southwest AL into far southeastern MS as a cold front continues to
   push east/southeast into the region. Ahead of the front, broken
   cloud cover has allow temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 70s,
   which based on recent RAP forecast soundings, should be supporting
   MLCAPE values upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg with very limited
   inhibition. Regional VWPs are sampling somewhat straight hodographs
   with 0-6 km BWD values of around 40-45 knots, which is supportive of
   supercells capable of producing large hail (1.0 to 1.75 inches in
   diameter). However, recent radar trends show widespread new cell
   development with destructive storm interactions ongoing. This may
   limit the overall coverage of strong/severe storms. With time,
   upscale growth/storm interactions along the front should promote
   clustering with an attendant damaging wind threat across southeast
   AL and parts of the FL Panhandle. Convective trends will continue to
   be monitored, and watch issuance is possible if the coverage of
   severe storms continues to increase.

   ..Moore/Thompson.. 05/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30228807 30418848 30798879 31198877 31648840 32038791
               32218722 32328616 32248541 31778509 31468504 31088510
               30708551 30478591 30388632 30308711 30218779 30208791
               30228807 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN