Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 662

   Mesoscale Discussion 0662
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0805 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

   Areas affected...Far eastern Alabama...northern Georgia...and
   adjancent parts of the far western Carolinas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216...

   Valid 030105Z - 030230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 216
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds will remain possible as a
   weakening squall line moves across northern Georgia through the
   evening hours. However, the onset of nocturnal cooling should limit
   a more robust/widespread severe threat. Downstream watch issuance is
   not expected.

   DISCUSSION...The convective line pushing east across eastern AL and
   northern GA has begun to become predominantly outflow dominant and
   is showing signs of weakening via falling echo tops and warming
   cloud-top temperatures in latest GOES IR imagery. This is likely due
   to the onset of nocturnal cooling with surface temperatures falling
   from the upper 70s and low 80s into the low 70s/upper 60s over the
   past 1-2 hours. Modifying the observed 00z FFC sounding for current
   temperature/dewpoints suggests that the low-level inversion is
   relatively shallow at this point in the nocturnal cooling cycle, and
   7-7.5 C/km lapse rates remain over the region. Consequently, there
   may be sufficient buoyancy lingering across northern/northeast GA
   and the far western Carolinas (where dewpoints remain in the low to
   mid 60s) to allow for a few stronger, but transient, updraft pulses
   within the line. The collapse of these pulses may promote damaging
   winds at the surface, but the overall threat should continue to wane
   with time and eastern extent as low-level stability increases in a
   modestly sheared environment.

   ..Moore.. 05/03/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...BMX...

   LAT...LON   33418558 33908509 34398467 34758438 35098396 35178374
               35188347 35128304 34998283 34788278 34568284 34008316
               33578356 33308400 33208442 33088508 33098545 33188564
               33308569 33418558 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN