Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 659

   Mesoscale Discussion 0659
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0534 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

   Areas affected...Central Alabama to far northwest Georgia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 214...216...

   Valid 022234Z - 030030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 214, 216
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A squall line moving east across central/northern Alabama
   and into far northwest Georgia will continue to pose a damaging wind
   threat through the early evening hours.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics show the development of a
   consolidated squall line extending from northeast to central AL.
   Local reflectivity and velocity data show segments of the line are
   struggling to maintain a balanced updraft/downdraft convergence zone
   - likely the result of weak low/mid-level shear as sampled by the
   KBMX VWP - but other segments show strong low-level velocities. The
   KHTX VWP recently sampled 35-50 mph winds within the lowest 1-2 km
   associated with the passage of the line, and surface observations
   have also recently sampled gusts between 35-40 mph. Downstream of
   the line, low-level lapse rates remain near 8-8.5 C/km, which will
   continue to facilitate efficient downward momentum transfer of the
   stronger low-level winds. Additionally, the line is migrating into
   the apex of a buoyancy ridge draped across AL with MLCAPE values
   upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg. As such, the potential for damaging winds
   should persist for the next few hours as the squall line progresses
   east - especially where balanced updraft/downdraft convergence zones
   can be maintained. In the absence of a stronger kinematic
   environment, the onset of nocturnal cooling after 00/01 UTC should
   result in increasing inhibition and modulate the wind threat heading
   into the late evening hours.

   ..Moore.. 05/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   32548819 33288749 34048671 34678616 34938579 35018524
               34968482 34758460 34428464 33908499 33518540 33048586
               32778623 32558662 32418698 32368724 32338764 32368795
               32428813 32548819 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN