Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 653

   Mesoscale Discussion 0653
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0205 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

   Areas affected...portions of central into southern Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212...

   Valid 021905Z - 022030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 212
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 212. Large hail is currently the main threat, though a couple
   of severe gusts and a tornado are also possible. The best chance for
   a tornado exists with supercell structures that are attempting to
   mature along an outflow boundary.

   DISCUSSION...Multiple areas of strong to severe thunderstorms are
   developing or are underway across portions of central into southern
   Texas. Multiple storms are attempting to mature along a southward
   surging cold front in central TX, with supercells also developing
   along a residual outflow boundary from earlier storms over central
   into southern TX. The greatest short-term threat for severe,
   including the possibility for a tornado or instance of 2+ inch
   diameter hail, exists with the outflow-boundary supercells. Here,
   the HGX VAD profile shows an elongated hodograph with modest
   curvature in the lowest few km. The severe threat should persist
   across central into southern TX for several more hours.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30259922 31249865 32069786 32349608 31799530 31059468
               30239458 29909479 29559547 29209673 28939744 28909786
               29079842 29469888 30259922 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN