Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 650

   Mesoscale Discussion 0650
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0123 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

   Areas affected...portions of southwestern Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 021823Z - 022030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase over portions of
   southwestern Texas through the afternoon. Supercells capable of
   producing large hail (some 2+ inch in diameter) and severe wind
   gusts are likely, and a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. A
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...A convective outflow boundary continues to sag
   southward as a small scale front/boundary advances from the Stockton
   Plateau. Ahead of both boundaries, the boundary layer continues to
   destabilize, with 3000 J/kg MLCAPE already in place given the
   presence of upper 60s F surface dewpoints overspread by 8-8.5 C/km
   mid-level lapse rates (per 18Z mesoanalysis). 60-80 kts of 300 mb
   westerly flow are also beginning to overspread the international
   border given the presence of a sub-tropical jet. As such, 40-50 kts
   of effective bulk shear is in place, in tandem with the
   aforementioned buoyancy, to support the development of supercells
   this afternoon. Severe hail and wind are the main threats. A few
   instances of 2+ inch diameter hail may occur, along with a tornado.
   A Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be needed soon.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   29590204 30380193 30980140 31220033 31209921 30609908
               29739935 29239974 29020026 29070067 29370105 29590145
               29620163 29590204 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN