Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 649

   Mesoscale Discussion 0649
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0102 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025

   Areas affected...TN to OH Valleys

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209...213...

   Valid 021802Z - 022000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209, 213
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Sporadic large hail and damaging winds will persist
   through late afternoon across a broad swath from the Tennessee to
   the Ohio Valleys. Damaging wind potential may be greater across the
   Kentucky portion in the near-term and in middle to eastern Tennessee
   later.

   DISCUSSION...A messy overall convective mode has persisted with
   several convective bands and discrete cells across a broad swath of
   the Deep to Mid-South. Low-level flow has been weak to modest across
   much of these regions, with nearly unidirectional moderate mid-level
   west-southwesterlies. One exception has been with the northern
   portion of the band in western KY where HPX VWP data sampled a 40-45
   kt rear-inflow jet. Southern activity should be dominated by
   sporadic large hail potential in the near-term, before greater
   amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs. This should
   support increasing wind potential south of KY by late afternoon.

   ..Grams.. 05/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...FFC...ILN...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...
   PAH...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   35518433 34318518 33898643 33628760 33688842 34598834
               35558737 36568707 37588733 38108705 38608573 38548480
               38368410 38028353 35518433 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN