Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 648

   Mesoscale Discussion 0648
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1129 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025

   Areas affected...parts of the TN Valley and Mid-South

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209...

   Valid 021629Z - 021800Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 209
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Multiple swaths of damaging winds and severe hail are
   expected through the afternoon. A corridor of greater severe wind
   and brief tornado potential is apparent across northern Mississippi
   into far southwest Tennessee.

   DISCUSSION...Multicell clusters along with an emerging linear
   segment are ongoing from the Mid-South across the TN Valley. Primary
   large hail threat is with the leading convection and developing
   cells to its south. Primary damaging wind threat will likely evolve
   in two regimes. In the near-term, across northern MS into far
   southwest TN where a north/south-oriented line segment progresses
   across the trailing outflow from the leading convection. This may
   also support potential for a tornado or two with enhanced low-level
   SRH along the outflow. Downstream in northern AL through middle TN
   and southern KY, damaging wind coverage should increase into late
   afternoon as greater amalgamation of convection occurs.

   ..Grams.. 05/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   36518766 37298752 37528666 37508604 37218579 36098586
               34688620 33928709 33808873 33828988 33879028 34569040
               35229017 35318900 35558825 36078790 36518766 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN