Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 641

   Mesoscale Discussion 0641
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0914 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

   Areas affected...Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 020214Z - 020345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch will likely be issued for much
   of Oklahoma. Hail and wind are possible with overnight convection.

   DISCUSSION...Low-amplitude short-wave trough is digging southeast
   across the High Plains, currently extending from western KS into the
   western TX Panhandle. A loosely organized band of thunderstorms has
   developed ahead of this feature and should continue propagating
   toward western OK over the next few hours. Additionally, surface
   boundary has sharpened a bit downstream, extending from near
   TUL-southern McClain County-near Lawton. As 1km flow increases into
   this frontal corridor later this evening it appears this boundary
   may encourage robust thunderstorm development. Most high-res models
   favor some version of this scenario, and strong shear will prove
   beneficial in potential organization. Hail and damaging winds are
   the primary concern and a severe thunderstorm watch appears
   warranted.

   ..Darrow/Smith.. 05/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36289967 35999531 33969511 34259990 36289967 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN