Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 640

   Mesoscale Discussion 0640
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0906 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

   Areas affected...Central Pennsylvania

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206...

   Valid 020206Z - 020400Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 206
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe wind threat may persist for the next 1-2 hours
   across central Pennsylvania, but a general weakening trend is
   expected through 03 UTC amid the onset of nocturnal cooling.

   DISCUSSION...Recent surface observations and RAP analyses show an
   expansive cold pool in place across central PA in the wake of a
   thunderstorm cluster earlier this evening. However, VWP observations
   from KCCX continue to show strong warm advection within the lowest
   1-2 km AGL, which is not only supporting 0-1 km SRH on the order of
   200-300 m2/s2, but is also maintaining modest warm/moist advection
   into the region from the south/southeast where dewpoints remain in
   the low to mid 60s. Consequently, sufficient buoyancy remains in
   place across the region to support deep convection - as evidenced by
   cooling cloud top temperatures and increasing echo tops over the
   past 30 minutes. Given sufficient (albeit limited) buoyancy and
   strong low-level wind shear, storm organization remains possible
   with an attendant threat for damaging winds in the near term across
   central PA. Beyond 03 UTC, confidence in this threat wanes as
   nocturnal cooling will continue to promote increasing low-level
   inhibition and diminishing buoyancy.

   ..Moore.. 05/02/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...

   LAT...LON   39977890 40737876 41077846 41267808 41267763 41047722
               40687715 40337716 39987738 39797769 39747837 39807876
               39977890 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH