Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 638

   Mesoscale Discussion 0638
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0550 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

   Areas affected...Southeast Ohio into western West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203...

   Valid 012250Z - 020045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203
   continues.

   SUMMARY...WW 203 will be allowed to expire at 23 UTC, but a
   localized corridor of wind damage potential may persist downstream
   of a line of thunderstorms for the next 1-2 hours. New watch
   issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from KRLX shows a convective line that
   was once mostly outflow-dominant attempting to established a more
   well-balanced updraft/downdraft convergence zone as new convection
   develops along the leading edge of the cold pool. Although GOES IR
   imagery continues to show warming cloud top temperatures (indicative
   of a weakening trend), lightning trends over the past 20 minutes
   suggest new updrafts are beginning to intensify. The onset of
   nocturnal cooling is gradually diminishing the thermodynamic
   environment downstream of this line, but VWP observations from KRLX
   continues to sample around 20 knots of 0-1 km bulk shear with shear
   vectors oriented largely orthogonal to the cold pool. Consequently,
   some organization/intensification of this line segment appears
   possible as storms move northeast along the OH river. Given the
   thermodynamic trends, additional watch issuance is not anticipated,
   but sporadic damaging winds appear possible for the next couple of
   hours.

   ..Moore.. 05/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   38098280 38628270 38788262 39758142 39848079 39728049
               39558033 39288028 39068036 38168205 38048238 38018257
               38098280 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN