Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 636

   Mesoscale Discussion 0636
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0529 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

   Areas affected...Texas Panhandle...extreme northeast New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 012229Z - 020030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered robust thunderstorms will increase in areal
   coverage this evening. Hail and wind appear likely with some of this
   activity. Severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted.

   DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough is
   digging southeast across southeast CO, ahead of a more significant
   500mb speed max that will translate into eastern WY later tonight.
   This lead feature appears instrumental in recent uptick in
   convection across the higher terrain of extreme southern CO into
   northeast NM. While moisture is a bit scant across this region,
   strong shear and steep 0-3km lapse rates are favorable for maturing
   updrafts, and some potential for supercells. With time an expanding
   corridor of robust convection is expected to spread/develop
   southeast into the TX Panhandle. Forecast soundings suggest hail
   could be common, along with gusty winds.

   ..Darrow/Smith.. 05/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36600295 36140042 34670098 35020325 35880408 36600295 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN