Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 635

   Mesoscale Discussion 0635
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0519 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

   Areas affected...Mid-Mississippi River Valley to the southern
   Appalachians

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 012219Z - 020015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Sporadic large hail and damaging winds will be possible
   through the early evening hours from the Arklamiss region to the
   southern Appalachians. Watch issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developing along a diffuse residual
   frontal zone/differential heating boundary draped across the mid-MS
   River Valley to the southern Appalachians have shown signs of steady
   intensification over the past hour via cloud-top cooling and an
   increasing in vertically integrated ice. Temperatures warming into
   the low 80s to the south of the boundary coupled with mid/upper 60s
   dewpoints are supporting 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE across a broad swath
   of the region, and 30-35 knot mid-level flow is support adequate
   shear for some storm organization. However, weak low-level winds
   (generally less than 10 knots) and steep 0-3 km lapse rates are
   promoting rapid cold pool expansion that is limiting storm longevity
   to some degree and favoring multicellular modes. A few stronger
   storms will be capable of severe hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) and
   damaging gusts - especially if a more consolidated, cold-pool driven
   cluster can become established. Overall, the severe threat is
   expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance
   given regionally weak forcing for ascent.

   ..Moore/Smith.. 05/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34868442 34358457 33978474 33748494 33398536 33188600
               32678895 32648909 32539083 32579121 32699158 32979182
               33209184 33469178 33689124 33879055 34838705 35078635
               35228561 35318519 35298486 35148457 34868442 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN