Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 633

   Mesoscale Discussion 0633
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

   Areas affected...Edwards Plateau into central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 011903Z - 012100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Large to very-large hail will be possible with widely
   scattered supercells this afternoon. A watch is possible for parts
   of the Edwards Plateau into central Texas. Timing and where the
   greatest concentration of storms will be remains uncertain. Trends
   will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...A very moist airmass has spread northward into much of
   central and eastern Texas. Cumulus towers have been increasing along
   an outflow boundary in central Texas and along a moisture
   gradient/pseudo dryline within the Edwards Plateau as temperatures
   have warmed into the mid/upper 80s F. Mid-level ascent will be weak,
   but strong surface heating and minimal MLCIN should allow a few
   widely scattered supercells to develop. The most organized storms
   are more likely in central Texas where effective shear will be
   greater. Storm coverage will likely be higher near the outflow
   boundary as the moisture gradient is less convergent. Storms this
   afternoon will be capable of large to very-large hail and severe
   gusts. A watch is possible for portions of these regions. The
   uncertainty will be the timing and placement of possible watches.
   Trends will continue to be monitored.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 05/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30049901 29459947 29120022 29290072 29550091 29840078
               30010058 31029904 31389834 31499815 31549796 31319746
               31069672 30719638 30449662 30479704 30689754 30639829
               30049901 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN