Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 632

   Mesoscale Discussion 0632
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0143 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

   Areas affected...central/eastern OH...northeast
   KY...western/northern WV...western PA

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203...

   Valid 011843Z - 012015Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 203
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Sporadic strong gusts capable of producing isolated
   damaging winds should be the primary hazard through the rest of the
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...Broken cells/clusters have increased in latitudinal
   extent along a north-northeast to south-southwest confluence axis
   from western Lake Erie through central KY. Measured gusts of 35-45
   kts have sporadically been measured, mainly across the OH portion of
   the band. This will likely persist and may still increase slightly
   over the next couple hours during the late afternoon. Area VWP data
   still indicates that the bulk of southwesterly speed shear is
   through the lowest 3 km, yielding pronounced weakness in the
   hodograph above that. This suggests that organizational potential
   may be limited, and recent WoFS guidance supports this scenario.

   More isolated convection has also formed over the higher terrain in
   the central Appalachian vicinity. This activity may struggle to
   expand east-northeast with a pronounced decrease in boundary-layer
   moisture across central PA and north/east from there.

   ..Grams.. 05/01/2025

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   41308239 41608208 42058121 42118070 42188009 41237937
               40497916 39777898 39387918 39037967 38888114 38748169
               37958292 37588399 37598446 37988457 38808377 39818292
               41308239 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN